Global food shortages will become three times more likely by 2040 and expose Britain to greater risk from terrorism, according to a government-commissioned study .
Droughts, heatwaves and floods will become more frequent because of climate change, and cause spikes in the price of key crops. This will cause unrest in the Middle East and parts of Africa and Asia, de-stabilising governments and creating conditions in which terrorism can flourish, the authors say.
The risk of a severe “food production shock”, now likely to occur once in 100 years, is likely to be a one-in-30-year event within 25 years, according to the UK-US taskforce on extreme weather and the global food system.
Tim Benton, the government’s lead adviser on food security and one of the study’s authors, said:
What we’re living with with Isis comes out of a spark that came from food price rises.